Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the oldest public health problems worldwide. The Case notification rate in various countries around the world varies due to different ecological factors. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the ecological factors that are contributing to the variation in the TB Case Notification Rate (CNR) among the 34 health districts in Namibia.
The descriptive analysis and statistical modelling were applied; the Pearson correlation was also performed to test the strength of relationship between the variables. Ten independent and one dependent variable were used. In selecting the best model fit, a backward elimination method was used as the model selection criteria. In this case, all the potential predictor variables were entered in the model and then dropped from the model one by one if they were found not to be significant at a predetermined level of significance which is 5 per cent.
The study observed that for every unit increase in the average maximum temperature, the TB CNR increases by approximately 27 cases. However, in contrast a unit increase in the average minimum temperature results in a decrease of about 77 cases in the district TB CNR.
The study found that although there were many predictor variables that could be interrelated to TB CNR, average minimum and maximum temperatures were the only variables that were found to have a significant association in terms of explaining the variation in TB CNR. The study concludes that more studies need to be conducted to further explore the possibility of the effect of global warming which has become a global phenomenon, as a possible precipitating factor to the TB pandemic.